I realize that many of my i98.3 listeners will be completely disinterested by this....but this is the only venue I've got to do this these days....so let's rock and roll:
QUARTERBACK - Edge: Patriots
The New York media would love to remind us - and let's face it - they've got a good point - that Tom Brady has not been great in 3 of his last 4 playoff games. He wasn't great in the Baltimore game in 2009, was an Alge Crumpler drop away from possibly having a decent game against the Jets in 2010, and didn't play well in last week's AFC Championship game in Foxboro. Some even go so far as to throw out the win and Brady's 363 yards for 6 touchdowns in the Denver playoff game - which I can't justify. Brady was lights out in that game against a defense that had carried the team all season. Yes, Tebow's hype and last second heroics were what the national media played off of - but without spectacular plays by the Denver defense in many of those games, Tebow (or Matt Prater) would have never been in position to win.
Eli Manning, on the other hand, has had a great season and played great in the playoffs. While his 92.9 QB rating for the season does not place him in the "elite" category with Rodgers, Brees, and Brady, it was very serviceable and certainly places him in the conversation with Matthew Stafford, Tony Romo, and Alex Smith, among others as a member of the next tier of quarterbacks in the NFL. With 8 touchdowns and just 1 interception against three tough opponents, he has played much better than many have expected. His 21/33, 320 yard performance in Green Bay - in January - has to rank as one of this year's playoffs' clutch performances, albeit against the 32nd ranked defense in the regular season.
The Patriots get the edge in this category - for one reason only. Eli Manning is more likely to throw an interception at the worst possible time than Tom Brady. The "Tom Brady always gets it done in the big game" line no longer is valid, as evidenced by recent history. Brady certainly outplayed Manning this year in the regular season - but anyone who truly wants to be rational has to give the edge to Manning so far in the post season. And let's face it, Eli is due for a pick at the wrong time this week, isn't he?
RUNNING BACKS - EDGE: Giants
Due to a lot of injuries on the New York offensive line this year - the Giants haven't ran the ball nearly as well as you would think they would have with the Amhad Bradshaw/Brandon Jacobs combo. They ran the ball very well in the Atlanta game against a decent run defense - but were pretty average against Green Bay and San Francisco, rushing for under 100 yards as a team in both games. In the first meeting during the regular season, Bradshaw was injured and Jacobs took the rock 18 times for 72 yards - hardly an impressive performance - but the big play ability of the Bradshaw/Jacobs combination outweighs the options the Patriots have right now.
Ben Jarvus Green-Ellis, coming off a 1,000 yard year in the 2010 campaign, has been satisfactory this year for the Patriots (667 yards, 11 TD) - but not nearly what you would have expected on the heels of last year's effort. Some of this is due to injury - but even when his injury issues haven't been there this year, his first step hasn't appeared nearly as explosive. Danny Woodhead was a significant part of this Patriots offense in 2010 - and has really seen his role reduced this year. Nonetheless, Woodhead is certainly capable of being a game changer with both his running and pass-catching out of the backfield (particularly in the flat) big play ability.
The wild card for the Patriots run game is whether or not rookie Stevan Ridley is entrusted with the football in this game. After fumbling in the regular season finale against Buffalo, and again in the AFC Divisional game against Denver, Ridley was inactive for the AFC Championship game. However - don't be surprised if Ridley is active this week - in fact, at media day on Tuesday, he was very confident that he would be playing in the Super Bowl. If Ridley plays, he provides more of an explosive north-south running game that may force the Giants linebackers to not have the ability to cheat on covering the Patriots' tight ends and slot receivers. Ridley can have a huge impact on this game - if he can protect the football.
The two Giants physical running backs - in a game that is sure to be very physical, as the regular season meeting was, get the edge over the Patriots' uncertain running game.
WIDE RECEIVERS - EDGE: Giants
Without Hakeem Nicks, this would be a pretty even matchup. However, Nicks' 18 catches for 335 yards in the playoffs are just a small example of the diversity he provides to the Giants offense. Between Nicks and Victor Cruz, the Giants have as good of a 1-2 deep threat combination as any in the past 10 years in this league - and against the Patriots secondary, this is a big concern. Can the Patriots patchwork secondary keep the Nicks/Cruz combination in front of them without playing a soft zone that will allow the Giants to march up and down the field on intermediate passes? Don't forget about Mario Manningham, either; who would be a #1 receiver on many other teams in this league. The triple threat of the Giants wide receivers is what is crucial for the Patriots to get a handle on if they are to win this Super Bowl. Any of these three receivers can make great plays while covered - and giving them even a yard or two of spacing could prove deadly for the Patriots defense.
The Patriots wide receivers have had an up and down, inconsistent year with the exception of Wes Welker and his 122 catches - does the Giants secondary have an answer to contain Welker underneath in the "dink-and-dunk" offense? It's always possible that Deion Branch can explode for a big game, or completely disappear. Branch's skills have eroded - and that's far more visible this year, but his chemistry with Brady makes him an important part of the Patriots offense. Julian Edelman and Tiquan Underwood could see action, particularly in the no-huddle offense where both have caught most of their passes this year - and would anybody be surprised if Chad Ochocinco exploded for a big game? I'm not predicting it, and I certainly don't buy into the "Bill Belichick is just saving Ochocinco for the Super Bowl" theory, but I wouldn't be surprised at all if Ochocinco made a key play or two in this game.
TIGHT ENDS - EDGE: Patriots
Even if Rob Gronkowski doesn't play in this game - or isn't 100% - the Patriots still have the edge in this category due to Aaron Hernandez and his versatility alone. Hernandez has escaped a lot of attention this week because of the Gronkowski injury, but his ability to get open up the seam, and particularly in the red zone, could be crucial to a Patriots victory if Gronkowski isn't 100%. Unlike other injuries, Gronkowski's ligament injury is unique in the fact that it could significantly hamper his ability to cut - particularly on the post routes that he has been so deadly on in the red zone this season, where he has to plant his foot and change direction quickly. There is no better 1-2 tight end combination in the league than this tandem, and even if Gronkowski plays at only 70% - he's still a dangerous weapon. The ability of first round pick Nate Solder to play tight end, if only for blocking purposes,
The Giants tight ends - Jake Ballard and Travis Beckum - both had respectable years in an offense where they are the #4 and #5 options, but nobody can forget Ballard's 4 receptions for 67 yards - and a late Eli Manning touchdown reception, in the regular season game at Foxboro. Ballard is a big (6-6, 275) target, and similar to the regular season game, could make a difference in this game, because so much of the Patriots' defensive focus is going to be on stopping the triple threat of the Giants' wide receivers. The Patriots' lack of a good pass coverage linebacker will likely mean Ballard will have a significant size advantage on whoever is covering him.
The tight end position is the only positional group, in my opinion, that either team has a significant advantage in - as all year, the Patriots have had over their opponents.
OFFENSIVE LINE - EDGE: Patriots
One of the most overlooked keys to this game, in my opinion, is how both offensive lines play. The Giants offensive line was maligned by injuries throughout the year, and with the exception of Pro Bowler and Boston College product Chris Snee (right guard), has played pretty inconsistent. Eli Manning was only sacked 28 times in the regular season, but has been sacked a whopping 8 times in the playoffs - compared to Brady being sacked only once in the postseason. Eli felt a lot of pressure in the NFC Championship Game, but still played well and made the right plays at the right times. Can he do that again this week?
Similar to the Giants, the Patriots offensive line has gone through numerous changes and has been beaten up throughout the year - only Pro Bowl free agent pickup Brian Waters started all 16 games at the same position on the line. However, Matt Light has had a spectacular season on the left side, and Logan Mankins has had a good year (albeit below average by his standards) as well. The Patriots have played 4 different people at center due to an early injury to Pro Bowler Dan Koppen - but the average fan has no idea who their replacements, Dan Connolly or Ryan Wendell are - and that's a good thing. The availability of Sebastian Vollmer in this game will free up Nate Solder to play as a third tight end in max protect schemes, which the Patriots successfully used to contain Jason Pierre-Paul in the regular season matchup.
Neither team has run blocked particularly well this year, and you'd have to say it's a disappointment that the Giants, as a team, despite injuries, only ran for 1427 yards during the regular season despite having two arguably feature backs. The Patriots quietly rushed for 1764 yards during the regular season, but only Stevan Ridley (5.1 ypc) was particularly impressive.
As a line, the Patriots have protected Brady so far in these playoffs, and that's why they're in the Super Bowl. Their play has been much more consistent than the Giants' offensive line, and while they are dealt with a tremendously difficult task on Sunday against the tremendous front 4 of the Giants defense, they possess the ability to rise to the challenge.
DEFENSIVE LINE - EDGE: Giants
A lot of the national media is playing off the drop-off between the Patriots and Giants defensive lines way too heavily. Yes, the Giants defensive line, with Jason Pierre-Paul (16.5 sacks), Osi Umenyoira (9.0 sacks), Justin Tuck and Chris Canty is world-class and the best in the league. They are also the same line who recorded only 2 sacks in the game at New England in November, and allowed for the Patriots to rush for over 100 yards. Of course, that has no bearing on what will happen in this game - but the Patriots did a great job at containing this unit in the prior meeting.
There is no doubt - the Giants defensive line can get to the quarterback, make plays, and cause continuous nightmares for offensive linemen. They stuff the run well, and are physical, aggressive and take no prisoners. They are the most significant force the Patriots offense will have to deal with in this game, and we can expect to see the Patriots use a lot of max protect schemes to protect Brady - including offensive lineman Nate Solder as a third tight end. If Gronkowski doesn't play, Solder will see a lot more playing time with Vollmer at right tackle in his place. If the Patriots can't stop the Giants defensive line, there is no chance they will win this game.
Nonetheless, the Patriots defensive line has played great in the playoffs, and was consistent throughout the year, despite being overlooked as the only part of the defensive unit that could be relied on to make a clutch play. Vince Wilfork's game against Baltimore in the AFC Championship Game rates as one of the most high-impact, one man defensive performances I've ever witnessed. While the Patriots certainly miss Andre Carter (10 sacks), the combination of Mark Anderson (also 10 sacks), Kyle Love, and Wilfork has played very well throughout the postseason, and has undoubtedly been a "plus" factor for this team. Getting pressure on Manning is key to making him force and/or rush throws and limit the big play, stretch the field ability of Nicks and Cruz.
LINEBACKERS - EVEN
Both the Patriots and Giants linebackers are very similar units - not great in pass coverage, but pretty good at stopping the run with decent big play ability. Michael Boley (93 tackles) and Jerod Mayo (95 tackles) solidify these units with their intelligence , while Rob Ninkovich (6.5 sacks) and Mathias Kiwanuka (3.5 sacks) have provided ability to rush the passer from the linebacker spot and have the ability to set the edge.
On the Patriots side, Brandon Spikes has returned from injury to make a tremendous impact (including a great instinctive play on an interception of Joe Flacco in the AFC Championship Game), especially with stopping the run, while rookie Jacquian Williams has a similar impact on the Giants side. The Patriots played in the 4-3 in the teams' first meeting in November, but have shifted back to the 3-4 for much of the play in the postseason and down the stretch, and I would expect to see the Patriots play most of the time with the 3-4 in the Super Bowl.
Neither unit is great, but neither unit is bad - and both are solid, consistent groups for their defense.
SECONDARY - EVEN
I am sure that I will be ripped for saying these two secondary units are even, with questions like "Did you watch the games this year?" and "Do you know anything about football?", but yes, I think these two secondaries are evenly matched, and that's not a good thing for either team.
Much of the national media focused on how the Patriots defense, until Week 17, was ranked 32nd (dead last) in pass yards given up with the likes of Dan Orlovsky tearing them apart. They gave up 4,703 yards this year (the Giants gave up 4,082). Patriots fans sat around groaning collectively as the Patriots gave up another big play, after big play, after big play.
However, most of those 4,703 yards were given up before defensive adjustments were made by Bill Belichick and his defensive staff. Moving Devin McCourty (who was on pace to give up the most yards by a cornerback, ever, for most of the season) to safety has proven to be a solid move thus far. Inserting Sterling Moore, who was once cut by the Patriots this SEASON after his abysmal performance in the Colts game, has paid off as well. Moore's physical play netted him 2 interceptions in the regular season finale against Buffalo - and his play against Baltimore's Lee Evans is arguably the only reason the Patriots are not sitting home right now. The return of Patrick Chung from injury has solidified the unit's vulnerabilities against the intermediate passing game. Kyle Arrington has leveled off after an early 7 interceptions, but is still an above average zone coverage cornerback.
On the other hand, the Giants secondary isn't terribly impressive, either. Yes, on paper they played a great game in Green Bay, but if Green Bay's normally solid receivers don't drop at least 7 sure completions in that game - many of them while no defender was within a few yards of them - we might be talking about a Patriots-Packers Super Bowl.
Corey Webster is a solid cornerback (51 tackles, 6 interceptions) but, outside of that, there are few playmakers in this secondary. The unit's safeties, Antrel Rolle and Kenny Phillips, frequently end up "in the neighborhood", but are usually making tackles at least 5 yards downfield, with few impact plays between them. Aaron Ross has had an up and down year, but has been known to make plays from time to time.
Nonetheless, neither secondary is good, and neither team can pretend that they trust their secondary to make a play if that's what this Super Bowl is going to come down to.
SPECIAL TEAMS - EVEN
Both teams have decent special teams units - kickers Stephen Gostkowski (NE) and Lawrence Tynes (NYG) are similar - same goes with punters Zoltan Mesko (NE) and Steve Weatherford (NYG). The kicking and punting units of both teams have significantly contributed to the teams' victories when the offenses were sputtering, and could play a big part on Sunday.
Neither team is likely to return a kickoff or punt for a touchdown (Julian Edelman returned a punt 72 yards for a touchdown, but other than that, no significant plays), and both units' coverage on kickoffs and punts is average.
COACHING - Edge: Patriots
To anyone that suggests that Tom Coughlin is a better coach than Bill Belichick, I ask you very politely - exactly what do you know about football? Bill Belichick is the best in the game, and there's little doubt that this year's team is one of his best coaching jobs (right up there with the 2001 season) in his career. To get this team - with these players - this far is nothing short of a major accomplishment.
Coughlin is a good coach, but when you compare the talent levels of both teams, it's obvious that Belichick has gotten the most out of working with less this season. The unity in the Giants' locker room and the way they have bought into Coughlin's system is impressive; but the discipline and maturity of the Patriots players this week show that they buy into what Belichick is selling equally. The real question here is, will Giants fans be running Coughlin out of town after week 9 again next year?
PREDICTION
Expect a big game out of the Patriots offensive and defensive lines. Both units have a chip on their shoulder and have played tremendously throughout this postseason. The Patriots offensive line has shown this year - with injuries - that they can contain the pressure from the Giants defense. This will be a high-scoring game and I can easily see both teams putting up more points than my prediction. Expect the relaxed Tom Brady to be razor sharp in a game that could make him go down as the best quarterback to ever play the game. Patriots 38, Giants 28.
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